Oh Canada, Oh Kyoto…

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In 1997, Jean Chretien signed the Kyoto accord committing Canada to reduce greenhouse emissions by 6% below 1990 levels. To commit Canada to this target without a study to demonstrate its feasibility or a plan to accomplish this goal was totally irresponsible. By 1997, Carbon emissions had already increased by about 10% so that Chretien was not signing for an emissions reduction of 6% but a total reduction of about 16%, an impossible task in 12 years. In contrast, during the 1990’s Britain was converting its coal fired power plants to natural gas which produces about 50% of the emissions compared with coal. Therefore, when Britain signed Kyoto it was already on its way to fulfilling its targets. By 2005, Canada’s greenhouse emissions had risen by 24% or 30% above the Kyoto target. This led to Canada being vilified and presented with fossil awards at every UN climate change conference.

However, there are facts that are never publicized. The 30% value is still quoted as the amount by which Canada missed its Kyoto target. However, between 2006 and 2010 total carbon emissions by Canada declined by 7% and now stand at approximately 19% above the 1990 levels or 25% above the Kyoto target.

One aspect of carbon emissions by that is never considered is the impact of population growth in Canada.  The Canadian government allows on average 250,000 immigrants per year into the country which is approximately 1% of the population. The Canadian population increased in the 20 years between 1990 and 2010 from 27.8 to 34.1 million, an increase of 23% over 1990 with immigration being mainly responsible. There is no reason why immigrants would have lower carbon emissions than resident Canadians. One might have expected, therefore, that emissions would have increased by 23% when they only increased by 19% or 4% less than might have been predicted from its population increase. Therefore, Canada came close to meeting its Kyoto commitment on a population basis. Canada achieved this result by lowering its carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 28%, mainly by reducing emissions required for power generation and manufacturing.

What are the population changes in other nations between 1990 and 2010? Australia and the US increased at a similar rate to Canada. However, the German population hardly increased at all as did that of Poland, the UK population increased by 8.6% and other European nations increased from between 9% to 18%. Canada therefore, because of its deliberate immigration policy made it inevitable that it would miss it Kyoto targets.

Am I suggesting that Canada should change its immigration policy? As an immigrant myself, who has lived in Canada now for 45 years, it is difficult for me to say that immigration should be curtailed. Immigrants have played an essential role in the development of Canada and will certainly continue to do so. So long as Canada targets immigration to meet the needs of the country, it should not be a problem and could solve many of the manpower requirements of the country. However, we should be aware of its consequences regarding carbon emissions.

Of course the activists, who complain about Canada’s emissions, will point out that our emissions per person are high. However, in contrast to Europe, our winters are colder and our summers hotter. In addition, the population of the UK is almost twice that of Canada’s but is contained in a space the size of Southern Ontario. This greatly reduces emissions associated with transport and infrastructure.

Canada’s record is not as bad as many would have us believe and it is time to appreciate and defend it.

Population Data

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL

Canadian Greenhouse Gas Emissions

http://www.ec.gc.ca/indicateurs-indicators/default.asp?lang=en&n=FBF8455E-1

Canadian Greenhouse Gas Indicators Per Person and Per Unit GDP

http://www.ec.gc.ca/indicateurs-indicators/default.asp?lang=en&n=79BA5699-1